Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
