Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
