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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.